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Week 4 Mega-Breakdown

by Justin Hume (JibJab)

Week 4 was the easiest week yet this year. A little over 62% of all picks were successful compared to the previous average of about 55%. I can't help but think these numbers are skewed though as most teams have lost their WRs by now which means there are fewer WR picks being made to drag down the average. FantasyWorld, make the WR thresholds easier already! Let's jump straight into some stats.

Survival Rates
QB - 66.0% (lat week: 68.6%)
RB - 24.1% (last week: 17.8%)
WR - 29.6% (last week: 22.1%)
TE - 72.6% (last week: 65.0%)
Off - 82.5% (last week: 66.9%)
Def - 59.6% (last week: 85.3%)

One should be careful not to overreact to a sample size as small as 3 games, but the general order of difficulty seems to be sorting itself out. Offense and Defense have been fairly predictable thus far with QB not far behind. The TE is next, followed by the RB. WRs have just been nearly impossible to predict so far this season. We'll see if that changes at all. I also expect the TE figures to begin dropping off as it's a top-heavy position and many teams have probably used up nearly all of the studs.

Now let's take a look at all the survivors and how often they were selected.

Surviving QBs
1. Peyton Manning - 24.1%
2. Eli Manning         -       7.8%
3. Ben Roethlisberger- 7.1%
4. Aaron Rodgers - 6.1%
5. Matt Schaub - 5.8%
6. Brett Favre  -       5.1%
7. Derek Anderson - 3.1%
8. Carson Palmer - 2.7%
9. David Garrard - 2.0%
10. Tom Brady         -   1.4%
11. Philip Rivers         - 0.7%
12. Matthew Stafford - 0.0%
13. Kerry Collins - 0.0%
14. Joe Flacco         - 0.0%
15. Kyle Orton         - 0.0%
 
Peyton comes through for the masses.
 
Surviving RBs
1. Matt Forte         - 20.6%
2. Ronnie Brown - 1.4%
3. Pierre Thomas - 0.7%
4. Joseph Addai - 0.7%
5. Steve Slaton - 0.7%
6. Ricky Williams - 0.0%
7. Knowshon Moreno - 0.0%
8. Rashard Mendenhall- 0.0%

If you survived without Forte this week you are in rare company.
Surviving WRs
1. Reggie Wayne - 15.5%
2. Santana Moss - 11.3%
3. Steve Smith - 1.4%
4. Derrick Mason - 1.4%
5. Brandon Marshall - 0.0%
6. Nate Washington - 0.0%
7. Bernard Berrian - 0.0%
8. Sidney Rice         - 0.0%
 
 
60 yards and a TD, how hard is it guys? I honestly believe the WRs will step it up soon. If any teams even have WRs left to choose.

Surviving TEs
1. Dallas Clark         - 28.9%
2. Antonio Gates - 12.9%
3. Vernon Davis - 11.9%
4. Greg Olsen         - 11.4%
5. Chris Cooley - 7.5%
6. Marcedes Lewis - 0.0%
7. Heath Miller         - 0.0%
8. Brandon Pettigrew- 0.0%
9. Steve Heiden - 0.0%
10. Visanthe Shiancoe- 0.0%
 
Nice job by the TEs this week. Several of the top options got through unscathed.

Surviving Offenses
1. NYG - 24.7%
2. HOU - 14.4%
3. IND - 13.7%
4. CHI - 12.2%
5. NO - 7.6%
6. MIN - 4.2%
7. SF - 3.4%
8. PIT - 1.9%
9. NE - 0.4%
10. SD - 0.0%
11. DET - 0.0%
12. JAC - 0.0%
13. MIA - 0.0%
 
The obvious picks have done remarkably well so far this season on offense and defense.
 
Surviving Defenses
1. SF - 27.3%
2. NYG - 16.5%
3. HOU - 7.9%
4. WAS - 4.1%
5. IND - 3.7%
6. JAC - 0.0%
7. MIA - 0.0%
8. NO - 0.0%
9. TB - 0.0%
10. DEN - 0.0%
11. DAL - 0.0%
 
The Bears were a big disappointment, but the 'Niners came through nicely.

Next, let's look at the most popular failures at each position. Chances are most of you had at least one of these jerks on your team.

Popular QB failures
1. Jay Cutler - 22.1%
2. Drew Brees - 10.5%
3. Jason Campbell- 0.7%

Only 2 QBs really hurt anyone this week, though they dealt some solid damage.
 
Popular RB failures
1. Adrian Peterson1 - 18.4%
2. Cedric Benson - 17.7%
3. Glen Coffee         - 15.6%

Hindsight is 20/20, but all along I thought the Coffee pick was a little too "cute."

Popular WR failures
1. Andre Johnson - 23.9%
2. Chad Ochocinco - 12.7%
3. Calvin Johnson - 11.3%

They're all failures in my book.
 
Popular TE failures
1. Jason Witten - 21.9%
2. Jeremy Shockey - 1.0%
3. Dustin Keller - 1.0%

Witten was about the only way anyone lost this week. He really took out a wide swath all by himself though.

Popular Off failures
1. CIN - 6.5%
2. BAL - 5.3%
3. DAL - 3.8%

Cincinnati was another play that was maybe a bit of a stretch, but I thought it was a good one. Apparently not.
 
Popular Def failures
1. CHI - 22.8%
2. CIN - 14.6%
3. BAL - 1.1%
 
The Bears failure was pretty surprising.

How'm I Doin'?

Over 90% of FantasyWorld players are still alive, though quite a few are barely breathing. With many users opting to use their challenge flags early and others saving them up it can be hard to determine where you stand. I ran a quick sort of the standings that sorts by remaining slots plus challenge flags, and then by points. 
The median team has 1 slot and 2 flags remaining with about 240 points 
The 10th best team has 3 slot and 3 challenge flags with about 323 points.

That's it for this week. Let me know if there are other stats you'd like to see me breakdown for you next Tuesday. Good luck in Week 5!